Smartphone Screen Repair vs Insurance Calculator
Should you pay for smartphone insurance or pay for repairs as needed?
Smartphone protection plans feel inexpensive month to month, but they add up quickly—and you may never file a claim. On the other hand, a single cracked screen can be a large one-time expense. This calculator compares the expected annual cost of two strategies:
- Out of pocket: you pay the full screen repair cost if it happens.
- Insurance: you pay premiums every month, and if the screen breaks you typically pay a deductible (and the plan covers the remainder of the repair cost).
The goal isn’t to predict the future perfectly—it’s to give you a clear, apples-to-apples way to evaluate when insurance is likely to be worth it for your risk level.
Inputs (what to enter)
- Screen repair cost (R): your estimated out-of-pocket cost for a screen replacement if you have no coverage. Use a quote for your exact model when possible.
- Monthly insurance premium (P): the recurring monthly cost of the protection plan.
- Insurance deductible (D): what you pay when you file a screen-damage claim (not including any additional service fees your plan might charge).
- Annual break probability (p): the chance you will have at least one screen-break event in a year, expressed as a percentage (0–100%).
Formulas used (expected value)
This calculator uses expected value: probability multiplied by cost impact. Let:
- R = screen repair cost
- P = monthly premium
- D = deductible
- p = annual probability of at least one screen break (as a decimal, so 20% = 0.20)
Out-of-pocket expected annual cost
If you’re uninsured, you only pay when a break happens:
Insurance expected annual cost
With insurance, you pay premiums regardless of claims, plus the deductible if a break happens:
Ei = 12 × P + p × D
Break-even probability
The break-even probability is the risk level where both strategies cost the same on average. Set Ew = Ei and solve for p:
pbreak-even = (12 × P) / (R − D)
If your estimated annual break probability is higher than this break-even value, insurance tends to win on expected cost. If it’s lower, paying out of pocket tends to be cheaper on average.
How to interpret the results
- Expected annual cost (out of pocket): what you’d expect to pay per year on average if you repeated the year many times with the same risk.
- Expected annual cost (insurance): premiums + the probability-weighted deductible.
- Cheaper option: the option with the lower expected annual cost.
- Break-even probability: the annual risk level where the choice flips.
Expected cost is a useful decision tool, but it doesn’t capture everything. Many people still choose insurance to reduce worst-case pain (paying a predictable monthly fee instead of risking a large surprise bill). Others prefer self-insuring (saving the premiums and keeping an emergency fund).
Worked example
Suppose:
- Repair cost R = $300
- Premium P = $12/month (so annual premiums = 12 × 12 = $144)
- Deductible D = $99
- Annual break probability p = 20% (0.20)
Out of pocket: Ew = 0.20 × 300 = $60/year
Insurance: Ei = 144 + (0.20 × 99) = 144 + 19.80 = $163.80/year
In this example, paying out of pocket has a much lower expected annual cost.
Break-even probability:
p = (12 × 12) / (300 − 99) = 144 / 201 ≈ 0.716 → 71.6%
That means you’d need roughly a 72% chance of at least one screen break per year (given these prices) for insurance to break even on expected cost.
Quick comparison table
| Scenario | Out of pocket (Ew = p×R) | Insurance (Ei = 12×P + p×D) | Which tends to be cheaper? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low break risk (small p) | Low (near $0) | Mostly premiums | Out of pocket |
| Moderate break risk | Moderate | Premiums + some expected deductible | Depends on R, P, D |
| High break risk (large p) | High (approaches R) | Premiums + deductible (approaches 12×P + D) | Insurance more likely |
| Deductible close to repair cost (D ≈ R) | p×R | 12×P + p×D (≈ 12×P + p×R) | Often out of pocket unless premiums are tiny |
Assumptions & limitations
- Single-event model: The probability input is treated as the chance of at least one screen break in a year. It does not model multiple breaks in the same year. If you routinely break screens more than once per year, this calculator will likely understate costs (especially out-of-pocket).
- Screen repair only: The math assumes the claim outcome is a screen repair with deductible D. Many plans also cover loss/theft, battery service, or full-device replacement with different fees—those are not included unless you adjust inputs to reflect your expected cost.
- Premiums are annualized as 12×monthly: If your plan has enrollment fees, taxes, or different billing cadence, add those into the premium number (or adjust manually).
- Doesn’t include service fees or claim limits: Some plans charge additional per-claim fees, restrict the number of claims, or require approved repair networks. Those frictions can make insurance less attractive than the simplified formula suggests.
- Repair cost variability: Actual repair prices vary by model, region, OEM vs third-party, and whether you have AppleCare+/manufacturer coverage. Taxes are not separately modeled.
- Risk tolerance isn’t priced: Even if insurance is higher expected cost, it can still be rational if it prevents a worst-case expense you can’t comfortably absorb.
FAQ
What annual break probability should I use?
Use your best estimate based on your habits and past experience. If you’ve broken 1 screen in the last 3 years, a rough starting point might be ~33% per year, then adjust for changes like using a better case, having kids use the phone, or doing more outdoor activity.
What if the deductible is higher than the repair cost?
If D ≥ R, insurance usually won’t help for screen repairs because you’d pay as much (or more) than the repair cost when you file a claim—while still paying premiums. In that case the break-even formula isn’t meaningful because R − D is zero or negative.
Does this include phone replacement?
No. This calculator is focused on screen repair economics. If you want to evaluate replacement (loss/theft), you’d need to model replacement probability and the replacement claim fee separately.
Does insurance cover multiple claims per year?
Many plans do, but often with a limit (for example, a maximum number of claims in 12 months). This calculator assumes at most one screen-break event per year; if you expect multiple claims, consider increasing the probability or using an average number of incidents model.